Saturday, January 14, 2012

With Tropical weather in Maine and Canada, is this Global Warming?

With Tropical weather in Maine and Canada with the Huricanes hitting these new places in the far north, this due to Golbal Warming? With Tropical weather in Maine and Canada, is this Global Warming?
It is tempting to say that the hurricane making it that far north is because of global warming. It was the first time in decades it has happened, but it is very hard to attribute specific weather events to global warming. The General Circulation models are really only useful for predicting long term changes in weather patterns (climate changes) on a global scale. We can't predict what the weather should be on 14 August 2012 in Boston MA, for example. As many of the skeptics point out, the system is far to complex and our understanding too limited. The only really answers the model gives is the climate will warm by 3 degrees C on average over the next 100 years for example. Different models predict different outcomes,and the same models predict different outcomes when emissions scenarios are changed. But the GCMs predict a global increase in temperature based on the natural cycles we know of (orbital cycles, solar cycles, and volcanic activity), the forgings of some of the greenhouse gases from both natural and human sources (CO2, CH4, N20, CFCs and a few others). A large proportion of these gases are caused by human activity and this upsets the carbon balance because we cannot stop natural emissions, but of the excess gases emitted by human activity, plant grow and ocean absorption can only absorb about half , increasing the atmospheric concentrations of these gases (we can directly measure this at different places around the earth) and resulting in global warming.



Scientists have to look and the GCM output, interpret it, and reason what is likely to happen on smaller temporal and spatial scales. This reasoning to a smaller scale is even more uncertain than modeling a larger scale. No scientist will say the hurricane was caused by global warming. However, they may say such an event is consistent with warming, but it could also only be a random event.
hurricanes and tropical storms start in the tropics and lower latitudes and often hit Maine and Massachusetts and even more frequently hit Nova Scotia and have for hundreds of years that people have been keeping records and for thousands of years before that.. Global warming has nothing to do with it.



Go look at the history section of the National Hurricane Center web site below for hurricane tracks.With Tropical weather in Maine and Canada, is this Global Warming?
No. Nova Scotia has been hit with the tail ends of hurricanes forever. Or hurricanes themselves. They almost always track up the east coast of the US and into Canada. But by the time they reach Canada the water is normally too cool for them to be anything more than a Cat 1 storm or mostly just a tropical storm. After passing NS they fizzle out very quickly due to the cooler waters and become nothing more than rainstorms.

Back in the 1950s (or early 1960s maybe) Hurricane Hazel hit Ontario (mainly Toronto...a great distance from the ocean) as a Cat 2 and did a lot of damage. It's unusual but not unheard of.
No. There have been plenty of hurricanes in the past that hit New England and Eastern Canada. One hit Cape Cod just a few years ago that caused quite a bit of damage there.



Edit: Wikipedia actually has a historical list of hurricanes that hit New England that's pretty good. It's obvious from one quick look that this isn't the first time in decades it has happened.With Tropical weather in Maine and Canada, is this Global Warming?
Did you see the movie "The Perfect Storm"? It's based on a true story about three major storms colliding up in that area. So no, this has nothing to do with global warming, unless we are talking about the warming that occurred after the last glaciation period.
What tropical weather in Maine and Canada?



1. Getting hit by a hurricane does not qualify as "having tropical weather".



2. Hurricanes have hit that far north many times. The fact that it has done it again doesn't mean crap about global warming.
It's not "tropical weather" it's a "tropical storm" and that just means a storm that formed in the tropics.



Major hurricanes that have hit Maine over the last century:



http://www.mainecoastguide.com/intro/hur鈥?/a>
U believe that it is because U are too young to ember. Man has always fought against weather just to survive. Some of our best stories is how they did the right thing to survive.
It is not tropical. It is typical for hurricanes to hit this far north though most have gone south lately. There have been years with numerous strikes on the northeast.
No one can say that it is.



Such an assessment clearly takes more observation than watching the weather over a few days.
yes
Many believe that it is. Global warming produces many strange changes in weather patterns. Lots of rain in places that typically don't get much rain, long spells of ultra-high temperatures in areas that are already hot, and even cooling in areas that are typically warm. The latter is the weirdest. Keep in mind that warming trends cause a lot of extra moisture in the atmosphere. This extra moisture can make dry areas of the world more moist, and essentially cool them provided certain other conditions are met. Global warming also is playing with oceanic tide patterns. Warm ocean waters are flowing into traditionally cooler seasides, but we are also seeing colder waters flowing from the north atlantic affecting the warmer southern waters. Essentially we need to understand that there are many facets to the effects of global warming to truly understand.

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